I have followed many Presidential Elections in the years past and have
always wondered "What is this Electoral College that we use?", followed by "Is it a reliable and fair method to elect the
President of the United States?" And I have never really found a satisfying answer to these questions.
So, since this has been such a historic election - and one whose outcome may affect our very ability to
continue as a democracy - I decided to do some more serious research into the
Electorial College. I have found, then, that the two answers to these questions are - or might be:
The origin and evolution of the Electoral College are really somewhat simple and fairly easy to understand.
No, it's not entirely fair. . .
So I will start with a short but comprehensive description of what the Electoral College is.
This will be followed with two calculations which show that both
We'll start with some stats:
U.S. Total Population (2024): 337,398,000 (approx.)
Note that, according to the U.S. Census "Population Clock", the U.S. has a net gain of one person
every 17 seconds.
U.S. Adult Population (2024): 266,480,300 (scaled from 2020)
Total that voted in 2024: 123,045,139 (as of November 6). 53.7% of U.S. Adult population voted.
Total Electoral Votes: 538
Apparently the Electoral College business goes all the way back to the creation of the U.S.
Constitution. The intention was to have the president elected by an independent "commitee" rather than by popular
vote. At the time, less populous states were concerned that their votes would be outweighed by the more populous
states.
From the U.S. Constitution:
"Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector."
The text continues by stating that the Electors will be the ones who elect the President:
The Electors shall meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two Persons, of whom one at least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves. And they shall make a List of all the Persons voted for, and of the Number of Votes for each; which List they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the Seat of the Government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate.
The 12th amendment made the change that each Elector only vote for one person.
So the Electors would be essentially an independent, even temporary entity. These Electors
would be the ones to choose the President. But the states were given a "Constitutional grant of authority", such
that the exact manner for selecting these Electors was up to each individual state.
So early on, for the first 12 or 13 presidential elections, the states tried various methods:
Some states divided themselves into districts, and the voters in each district nominated their Electors.
Some states used their state legislature, without any popular vote in the state.
Some states used the now common "winner take all" approach: The Electors cast their vote based on the majority of the state's popular vote.
But by 1820 (for better or for worse!), political parties had become formed. Thus the
Electors could no longer be trusted to be "independent". In the succeeding elections, more and more states
began to use the "winner take all" system. It became the only way for each state to have a chance. By the 1870s,
all states were using this system.
Note that currently Maine and Nebraska still use the "district" system - four districts for Maine and five for
Nebraska.
So there you have it: the Electoral College has persisted to this day. There is actually no law that
specifies that states are required to force their Electors to follow the popular vote, but "most" states have laws in
place to prevent their Electors from voting otherwise. The term for voting otherwise is a "Faithless Elector". I would note
that, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, there were seven "Faithless Electors"
in the 2016 election, including 5 Democratic Electors who did not cast their votes for Hillary Clinton.
Nonetheless, so far, there have not been enough Faithless Electors to have affected a Presidential election.
It might be noted that in the 2000 election, Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote.
Also, in 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote.
Some information about "Rural" States follows. And why do we want to talk about the influence of Rural States? It's because, over the years, the Rural States have significantly drifted toward the Republican party.
From 1996 - 2023, urban areas have not changed much. They averaged 60% Democrat and 38% Republican |
From 1996 - 2023, suburban areas have not changed much. They averaged about 50/50. |
But from 1996 - 2023, Rural areas have have changed significantly. They have gone from about 50/50 to 35% Democrat and 60% Republican. |
|
Images from PEW Research, www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/partisanship-in- rural-suburban-and-urban-communities/, Accessed 11/6/2024 |
Here is a table of "rural" states. These states have a population density less than
60 people/square mile.
These are mainly all the "Red" states that we saw in 2024.
They are mostly from the Midwest to the West Coast (but not including the 3 big West Coast states). Also, Maine
is not included.
STATE |
E.V. |
POPULATION |
DENSITY |
Montana |
4 |
1,140,700 |
8 |
Idaho |
4 |
1,978,500 |
23 |
N. Dakota |
3 |
789,400 |
11 |
S. Dakota |
3 |
925,700 |
12 |
Wyoming |
3 |
588,100 |
6 |
Nevada |
6 |
3,216,500 |
30 |
Utah |
6 |
3,441,700 |
41 |
New Mexico |
5 |
2,129,200 |
16 |
Nebraska |
5 |
1,992,200 |
25 |
Kansas |
6 |
2,961,100 |
37 |
Alaska |
3 |
738,500 |
1 |
Colorado |
10 |
5,918,800 |
58 |
Oklahoma |
7 |
4,082,200 |
59 |
TOTALS |
65 |
29,902,600 |
|
So, we want to see how the combined Electoral College votes of Rural States
compare in "weight" to their combined population - if a "Popular Vote" had been used:
Percent of votes by E.V.: = 65/538 = 0.121 = 12.1%
Percent of Rural votes vs actual number of votes in 2024 by Nov 6:
Percent= 29,902,600 / 143,902,600 = 0.209 = 20.9%
So, for the Rural States, 12% of Electoral Votes has the weight of 21% of popular votes!
But hold on, because it gets much worse!
A "Swing State" is one that does not have an extensive history of voting for one party or
the other. So for example the three big West Coast states, New York, and others are typically Democratic. And Texas,
Florida, Oklahoma, and others typically vote Republican. But there are seven states that have voted either way
in most of the last four elections. These are Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and
Pennsylvania.
Swing states exist partly due to the Electorial College business. I attempt to show why this is flawed here.
Here is a table of "Swing" States.
STATE |
E.V. |
POPULATION |
DENSITY |
Arizona |
11 |
7,483,400 |
67 |
Nevada |
6 |
3,216,500 |
30 |
Georgia |
16 |
11,106,400 |
195 |
N. Carolina |
16 |
10,911,300 |
225 |
Michigan |
15 |
10,107,500 |
179 |
Wisconsin |
10 |
5,952,300 |
110 |
Pennsylvania |
19 |
13,052,400 |
290 |
TOTALS |
93 |
61,829,800 |
|
So, we want to see how the combined Electoral College votes of Swing States
compare in "weight" to their combined population - if a "Popular Vote" had been used:
Percent of votes by E.V.: = 93/538 = 0.1728 = 17.3%
Percent of Swing State votes vs actual number of votes in 2024 by Nov 6:
Percent= 61,752,100 / 143,902,600 = 0.432 = 43.2%
So, for the Swing States, 17% of Electoral Votes has the weight of 43% of popular votes!
So why do we still have The Electorial College? It's not for trying. There have been
countless times in the past where an attempt has been made to eliminate it. Would you believe 700 times
in the past 200 years?!?
A ray of hope: Recently there has been another attempt, which would at least lessen the effect of the
Electoral College. This is the National Popular Vote Compact. The way it would work is that states have
their Electors vote for the winner of the national popular vote rather than the winner of each state.
As of this writing, seventeen states have signed up for this protocol.
Copyright © 2024 J.A.